基于BDD考虑共因失效的接触网系统可靠性分析

为分析共因失效对高速铁路接触网系统的影响，将二元决策图(Binary Decision Diagram，BDD)与共因失效理论引入到接触网系统可靠性分析中。利用逻辑相邻优先组合法(Logic Neighbor Priority Connect，LNPC)将高速铁路接触网系统的故障树模型转化为BDD模型并求取其可靠度表达式，利用隐式方法对考虑了共因失效的接触网系统可靠度进行计算，利用MATLAB绘制考虑共因失效和不考虑共因失效情况下接触网系统可靠度变化曲线。研究结果表明:提出的分析方法适用于接触网系统的可靠性分析，为接触网系统的可靠性分析提供了一定的理论依据。     

Dynamic Bayesian networks for reliability evaluation of subsea wellhead connector during service life based on Monte Carlo method

The subsea wellhead connector is a critical connection component between subsea Christmas tree and subsea wellhead for preventing the leakage of oil and gas in the subsea production system. Excited by cyclical loadings due to environmental forces and the other support forces, the subsea wellhead connector is prone to the failure, which could lead to the loss of subsea tree or wellhead integrity and even catastrophic accidents. With the Monte Carlo simulation method, this paper presents a reliability analysis approach based on dynamic Bayesian Networks, aiming to assess the failure probability of the subsea wellhead connector during service life. Take the driving ring component of the subsea wellhead connector as an example to demonstrate the reasonability of the proposed model. The generation data is processed by the transform between the numerical value and the state variable. Based on the stress-strength interference theory, the structure reliability of the driving ring with 96.26% is achieved by the proposed model with the consideration the aging of the material strength and the most influential factors are figured out. Meanwhile, the corresponding control measures are proposed effectively reduce the failure risk of the subsea wellhead connector during service life.     

航空器场内失事应急演练评估指标体系与评估方法研究

针对目前我国民用运输机场航空器场内失事应急救援综合演练缺乏有效评估体系的现状，通过对演练过程进行系统分析，构建航空器场内失事应急救援演练评估指标体系，涵盖消防、医疗、公安、媒体应对、运行指挥中心、地服、飞行区7个组织部门的2级指标。结合航空器场内失事救援的业务特点以及指标体系内在逻辑，设计相应的评估方法，对开展的航空器场内失事应急演练进行评估；最后，以国内2个机场的相关应急演练过程为典型示例，进行应用分析。研究结果表明:构建的演练评估指标体系及评估方法能较好地应用于实际应急演练过程，进而在演练评估结果和建议的基础上，实现应急演练的持续改进。     

汽车整车自然暴露试验评价方法前期研究

主要介绍汽车整车自然暴露试验评价方法,基于整车厂长期进行汽车整车自然暴露试验,对整车进行表观检测、性能检查及其他项目检测,通过分析试验结果,归纳汽车内外饰件常见缺陷,按照失效程度和不同部件类型,为整车耐候性进行等级划分,建立整车系统化评价方法。     

我国典型村庄农村环境质量监测与评价

选取典型村庄,基于农村环境质量监测和评价方法,对典型村庄2014年农村环境质量进行监测和评价,结果表明:典型村庄环境空气质量状况总体良好,达标比例为82.0%,超标村庄多分布在中国西北地区;农村饮用水源地水质较差,总体水质达标比例为67.1%,地表水和地下水饮用水源地水质达标比例分别为89.8%和52.6%;农村地表水环境质量欠佳,Ⅰ~Ⅲ类水质断面占72.7%,饮用水水源地和地表水水质各地区均存在超标村庄;部分地区土壤重金属超标问题较为突出,出现监测项目超标情况村庄占20.6%,土壤超标村庄主要集中在中国东北、华中和华南等地区;农村生态质量状况相对较好,"较差"和"差"的县域主要分布在中国西北和华中北部地区。     

Income and distance-decay effects on willingness to pay estimated by the contingent valuation method

This study suggests a methodology for enhancing accuracy in evaluating amenity by the contingent valuation method when household's willingness to pay (WTP) is dependent to its income and the distance between a respondent's residence and the location of a target facility. Using a linear city model, this study demonstrates the influences of income and distance-decay effects on WTP. Simulations are performed to check the validity of the model, as well as to predict consequences when income and distance-decay effects are not properly treated. Finally, the suggested methodology is applied to two real cases. The estimation results from a structural model show that the calculated total benefit varies largely when income and distance-decay effects exist and are ignored. Also, an ad hoc model generates significantly different estimates from the utility difference model this study adopted. The difference in estimates suggests that the total benefit has to be estimated by a structural model.     

基于生态—经济协调发展的乡镇空间功能分区

按提供产品的类别,乡镇尺度空间由生态空间、农业空间和建设空间组成,这3部分空间共同承载着乡镇社会经济发展的重任。坚持生态保护对发展的约束与支撑功能并存的理念,建立以生态约束为前提,并与开发建设协同推进的分区指标体系、技术方法及应用模式,是生态文明战略下空间功能分区的有益探讨。以南京市六合区雄州街道为案例,借助Arc GIS空间分析工具,采用互斥性矩阵分类法,通过对生态约束、农业发展、工业发展与人居环境等建设开发适宜性的单项与综合评价的集成,构建生态、农业和建设空间布局的总体架构,实现了街镇空间功能的整合与科学定位;划分禁止建设区、限制建设区、适宜建设区和已建设区等四大类功能区,并提出各功能区的生态环境保护措施与产业发展导向,为实施区域发展与生态保护的协同推进提供了依据。     

LC-MS/MS determination of pesticide residues in fruits and vegetables

The aim of the research is to evaluate pesticide residue contamination of fresh and frozen fruits and vegetables, agricultural raw material, purchased from Polish farmers for production of frozen fruits and vegetables, and the estimation of the multiresidue method effectiveness expressed as the proportion of pesticides detected in food samples to the total number of pesticides analyzed by multiresidue methods. A total of 144 samples (of black currants, red currants, raspberries, cherries, strawberries, blackberries, cauliflowers and broccoli) were analyzed using LC-MS/MS method for the determination of 60 pesticides. QuEChERS extraction, matrix-matched calibration and dynamic multiple reaction monitoring method were used. Residues of 15 compounds, mainly fungicides and insecticides, were detected in 46 samples. The percentage of samples with residues above the maximum residue levels (MRL) was 15%, whereas samples with residues below MRL were 17%. A total of 13 samples contained more than one pesticide residue. Pesticide residues were detected most often in samples of black currants (50%), broccoli (36.4%), raspberries (29%) and red currants (21.8%). The most frequently detected pesticides were carbendazim and acetamiprid. The proportion of pesticides detected during our study to the total number of analyzed pesticides amounted to 25%. It was compared to literature findings. For three fourth of multiresidue methods, the proportion was below 50% for methods developed for the analysis of less than 100 pesticides, and below 30% for methods developed for the analysis of more than 100 pesticides. It appears that a lot of efforts and means is lost on pesticides never or rarely detected in examined samples. The workload and cost effectiveness of the development and application of multiresidue methods along with the range of pesticides covered by the method should be carefully and thoroughly considered anytime when a new method or workflow is developed. Including non-targeted screenings in pesticide residue control seems to be an alternative worth considering.     

大气颗粒物手工比对监测体系滤膜称量质控技术探讨

健全大气颗粒物手工比对监测体系是"十三五"环境空气自动监测质量管理的一项重点任务,其中颗粒物滤膜的称量直接影响手工监测数据质量。研究调研了国内各级环保部门所属环境监测机构颗粒物滤膜称量工作情况,结合国内外方法标准、技术规范等,重点探讨了称量实验室环境、称量设备、称量影响因素等滤膜称量质控要点,并针对环境管理与监测需求对大气颗粒物手工比对监测滤膜称量质控提出建议。     

基于地形分区的射线跟踪法加速方法的研究

通过分析影响射线跟踪法计算效率的因素,提出一种基于多线程的用于开放地理环境中的射线跟踪加速方法,以提高射线跟踪法在计算机仿真中的计算效率。该方法应用于特定复杂战场电磁环境,根据电磁波射线传播特性,采用对地形分区的途径减少射线与规则三角面地形面的求交次数,同时使用多线程追踪单个辐射源的射线路径。经过对方法进行仿真计算,验证该方法的有效性。